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TRENDS IN AIR POLLUTION LEVELS:
As part of the North Shore Air Inventory Report project, we looked at the overall trend in air pollution in order to put into context any results that were found. On a positive note, the overall trend in air pollution is on the decline according to reporting methods and monitoring system data currently in use. However, EPA statistics do have a time lag factor back to 1999 or 1996 levels. These lagging statistics still place residents of Essex County at an increased risk for both cancer and non-cancer health issues due to air pollution. Additionally, Essex County still does not meet Ozone standards. Further, gaps in the existing data may provide new opportunities for air pollution reductions. These potential opportunities were investigated in this report.
We wish to call attention to the fact that we did not investigate emissions trends of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere in this study. EPA has not yet identified CO2 as an official air pollutant and thus it was excluded from this study under EPA funding. However the Commonwealth of Massachusetts does recognize the importance of CO2 emissions to global climate change through the 'Greenhouse effect' and is promulgating regulations that would begin to limit emissions or force emission trading of CO2 offsets from specific power plants in this state.. CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere have been increasing steadily throughout the world since the industrial revolution. The rate of increase of CO2 concentrations is also increasing.
SUMMARY CONCLUSIONS OF TRENDS:
By reviewing trends in available data for Criteria Air Pollutants, HAPs, and TRI/TURI listed chemicals, as well as monitor data did confirm that overall reported and monitored air pollution has been on a steady decline both in Essex County and in the three target communities. What is absent in this trend review is how that may compare to the air pollution that is not monitored or self-reported. This would include trends in air pollution caused by Area sources such as drycleaners, print shops, and small commercial operations, as well as trends in air pollution due to Mobile on and off-road vehicles. The latest EPA estimates for these were 1999, thus many years have passed since the last evaluation of these sources. In addition, while those same EPA estimates showed an overall decline from 1985 levels from Criteria Air Pollutants, there was a slow increase being seen between the years of 1995 to 1999. Thus it is certainly possible that this trend may have continued to show an increase since 1999. Even with new emission controls for vehicles and additional changes in operations at certain area sources, the air pollution from these sources may be on the increase in particular due simply to the increase in small businesses and both on and off-road vehicle use. It appears clear that Major air pollution sources have continued to become a smaller contributor to overall air pollution (while still largely being the focus of both public and regulatory attention), and thus both Area Sources and Mobile Sources require further review and attention.
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